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LaserTagForum.org • Просмотр темы - Swerving Points, Week 1
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Swerving Points, Week 1

Обсуждение вопросов продвижения на рынок аренных лазертагов, а также соответствующих маркетинговых стратегий и приемов

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Swerving Points, Week 1

Новое сообщение chenyan94 » 26 окт 2018, 04:35

Four oft-overlooked Broncos-Seahawks details Denver Broncos 27, Seattle Seahawks 24 This was a game of massive plays and momentum swings. The game kept churning and turning, populated by momentous plays in each quarter. Of course, for Week 1 of 2018, the biggest moments we’re talking about are the non-fumble, the Emmanuel Sanders touchdown rumble, the missed field goals (come on, you had two tries!) and of course the extremely debatable Demaryius Thomas touchdown.There’s little need to break down the biggest plays, a couple days after they’ve turned to lines in a box score and bad or good memories. They can’t be changed, we know they mattered, and we largely know what went wrong. On the negative side: Bad tackling, bad angles, bad calls, bad execution, bad luck. Sometimes all five at once. On the positive: brilliance by a Seahawk, or two, or three at a time. What we’re used to.Meanwhile, just below the radar, some of the game’s most important decisions or moments came and went with comparatively little fanfare. Those plays, maybe not the tuning points, but at least the swerving points, if you will, are what this weekly series is about.Earl’s playing timeWhen Kam Chancellor held out in 2015, the Seahawks defense suffered. They gave up 61 points in Weeks 1 and 2 combined while Chancellor fruitlessly “negotiated” with the front office; in the five games following his return, they gave up a total of 67 points. His presence mattered, as illustrated most vividly by The Punch, his answer to Earl Thomas’ karate chop exploits.In a similar, yet far less obvious way, Earl’s delay in reporting to camp cost Seattle. But wait — hold on. How can I bag on Earl’s importance when he yet again made a difference? How can I complain about the guy who teleported for an interception that led to points? Only because the holdout he (again fruitlessly) insisted on led to partial playing time in Week 1.Thomas sat out on 10 plays out of 74 logged by the defense. In years past he’s been on the field 99 percent of time when healthy. As Ben Baldwin of The Athletic points out, those 10 Earl-less plays cost the Seahawks dearly.ET’s presence kept the Broncos in negative points expected; his absence kept them in the positive. The more he plays, the less the bad guys score. Play more, Earl. For all our sakes.Situational rushingAt first glance, the Seahawks rushing game looks unbalanced, promising, underused , potent or mysterious. It’s all of those, of course, but the thing I want to focus on is exactly when Seattle elected to keep the ball on the ground, and how that impacted success.The Seahawks’ 15 rushes came on:1st and 10 nine times: one success2nd and 10 three times: one success, by Russell Wilson3rd and 16 once: no successes, for obvious reasons2nd and less than 10 twice: two successes, one by Chris Carson, one by Rashaad Penny13 times out of 15, Seattle ran with 10 or more yards to go, in a situation that puts the RB at a disadvantage. It’s hard to make the running game work when all it does is set up second and long, or third and long. Both times they ran in favorable downs and distances, though, they got the first, or half the yardage necessary. There’s a lesson to be learned there. It’s not quite “never run,” sorry to that crowd, but it’s definitely not “establish the run” either.Since we’re on Carson, his biggest gain from scrimmage was wiped out on a J.R. Sweezy holding penalty. On the plus side, he qualified for the next Olympics 110 hurdles team.It’s no surprise that on their 14 rushes, Rashaad Penny and Carson were successful only thrice. Yet, somehow, it gets worse. On Carson’s final “successful” run, midway through the third quarter, cheat code linebacker Von Miller helped himself to the football. In other words, almost every running back carry (12 out of 14!) on Sunday was a waste of a down or resulted in a turnover. No wonder Seattle went heavy on the pass, with only 15 rushes to 39 dropbacks.Seeing if Seattle elects to run on more manageable downs in Week 2, making those runs more valuable and less a waste of a snap, is something to watch for.Tyler Lockett’s punt return decisionsIt isn’t Pick-on-Tyler-Lockett week. He got the Seahawks fully back into the game on the second play of the fourth quarter with a 51-yard touchdown catch that might set the tone for a big year. If you want a further breakdown and don’t mind giving the Seattle Times a click, have at it:It was a typical creative moment from two men who’ve not always been on the same page, or healthy at the same time, since Lockett entered the league three seasons ago.We’re not here to talk about Lockett’s big play, though. More salient to the final result is how the Seahawks needed Lockett to be a little bit better last Sunday on special teams.Lockett got six chances to make a difference on kick returns, fielding two kickoffs and four punts. One kickoff return was a disaster, all of nine yards, forcing the Seahawks to start on their own 16, the victim of hidden yards. The other was fine , good even, a 30-yard scamper.But on punt returns, Lockett’s decisions were costly. He let the first punt, a returnable one, bounce for another 10 yards in Denver’s favor. On the second he netted nine yards, but on the the third he lost a couple. Finally, a four-yard return on which he did nothing special rounded out his day. Out of six chances, four results were subpar. The Seahawks don’t need Lockett to be an All-Pro return man, though it’s clear he’s cabaple of performing at that level. They just needed him to be a little bit better Sunday, especially in a game decided by three points. As many games might turn out to be this season.The decision to kick that ill-fated FGThere’s really not much of a rationale for taking Sebastian Janikowski off the field on 4th and 6, when his field goal try had just been moved up five yards after a practice kick. The odds say he’s going to make a 46-yarder; statistically, it’s not prime go-for-it real estate. The Fourth Down Bot from the New York Times would agree, and even it recommends going for it more often than any coach, besides maybe Philadelphia’s Doug Pederson. The bot says:With the ball on the 28, a close game almost halfway through, and six yards to go, the field goal looks sensible on a neutral statistical level. However. However, however, however. Given the time left on the clock, the ability of Denver’s offense on Sunday to move the ball, Case Keenum’s carelessness, and Janikowski’s history, the field goal choice presents some problems.1:56 left means that a succesful field goal gives Denver time to execute a two-minute drill. Going for it and making it ensures the Broncos won’t get a good scoring chance. Of course, going for it and failing gives them pretty decent field position around the 25, but they were going to get that on the kickoff anyway, with virtually the same amount of time.17 points already put up by the Broncos means a field goal, even if successful, is not the kind of score that will help you keep pace. You don’t know the final margin of victory will be just three points, and you can’t necessarily count on your green defense to be any stouter in the second half.Keenum had already thrown one interception and just missed gifting another to Seattle. The chances were decent that he’d commit another error, eventually. You can’t assume the Broncos would take advantage of a missed conversion. (As it is, Keenum sure did serve another up, lobbing the ball to Bradley McDougald a minute later.)Finally, it’s very much worth pointing out that Denver is not Janikowski’s second home — it’s one of his least favorite places to kick. His FG percentage is 72.5 at Mile High, compared with 80.3 for his career. Denver is the away city where he’s missed the most field goals (14), compared to 11 in Kansas City and 11 in San Diego/LA , despite fewer attempts in Denver even.Denver turns Janikowski into 2017 Blair Walsh. You’d like to think Carroll would know that going in.(Interjection Because I Can: McDougald is going to make a ton of plays, if he stays healthy. Teams will continue to avoid Thomas because that’s what they do, but that just means more balls in the other safety’s direction. With a few young and turnover-prone quarterbacks on the schedule this year — Mitch Trubisky, Josh Rosen, Jimmy Garoppolo, Matt Stafford, among others — I wouldnt be surprised to see McDougald lead the team in picks, or even the league. Yes I’m serious.)To summarize: the decision to kick is supported by success rates on fourth down and six. But since you’re in that area of the field, in that period of the half, where taking a chance doesn’t cost you a ton of field position and allows you maybe to keep the ball until halftime, and doesn’t require you to put trust in an iffy kicker, the decision is a lot more murky. Who knows how the game plays out if Carroll takes a chance similar to Fourth And Seven in the 2013 NFCCG.Looking ahead to Week 2Some interesting subplots are developing already.How will the new guys look after a week of trial (Tre-al) by fire?Is Will Dissly for real?Run-pass ratio was not what we were promised in the preseason; what’s up with that?Does Michael Dickson follow up his very nice day with an acceptable, or even excellent, encore?Third downs. Seahawks were 2-12. Will Week 2 prolong or reverse their fortunes?And hopefully, next week we’re talking about the under-the-radar plays that helped Seattle even its record at 1-1.Seahawks fall down DVOA rankings despite win The Seahawks got the win on Sunday, but most fans, analysts, or anyone watching with a normal sense of good football vs bad football, feels that Seattle only got worse against the Cardinals. That could come from just a gut feeling you had watching the offense struggle to get the ball more than a few yards downfield at a time, but advanced metrics will back your feelings up on that.Once the kings of DVOA (first overall from 2012-2015), the Seahawks have now fallen below the very middle of the pack.The Seahawks were 14th in DVOA last week after their decent win at home over the Cowboys, but they’ve fallen to 19th as we approach Week 5. That includes a number six ranking on defense, but almost every expects that to tumble with the loss of free safety Earl Thomas for the rest of the season; Seattle is ninth against the pass and surprisingly enough, tenth against the run. However, they’ve faced the fifth-easiest schedule of offense so far, per DVOA.That will change at home on Sunday against the number one ranked offense of the LA Rams. The Rams are first in passing efficiency and fourth in rushing efficiency. They are ninth on defense by DVOA, including seventh against the pass and 23rd against the run; only fueling Brian Schottenheimer’s fire to keep the ball out of Russell Wilson’s throwing hand.Seattle is 24th in passing and 22nd in rushing.My instincts told me that the Seahawks must have some advantages on special teams, and that is actually true: Michael Dickson is first in punting efficiency and by a fairly wide margin. However, Seattle is in the negative on every other phase of special teams except for punt returns, where they are just above average. They (Sebastian Janikowski) are one of the worst field goal kicking teams in the league so far.Overall, the Seahawks are 14th in special teams, but they could be bottom-five without Dickson. The Rams, long hailed for their special teams prowess under John Fassel, are just 17th in that category so far and Johnny Hekker+punt coverage is only just above average.
chenyan94
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